A big part of the mocking process is first trying to get a handle on who will be drafted in the first round regardless of team.
This exercise will (hopefully) accomplish exactly that. I will give a rundown of each position in the draft, and sort prospects into the following categories:
Lock - 99% chance of going Round 1
Probable - 75%
Coinflip - 50%
Maybe - 25%
Dart - 10%
This is not a particularly scientific method — I’m not basing this off of percentage of mock drafts or anything like that. It is simply a general representation of each position based on feel.
At the end, I’ll summarize exactly what the picture looks like with two weeks to go. My hope is this proves useful both for mock drafting and draft betting.
*Travis Hunter will count as a cornerback for this exercise
Quarterback
Lock (1): Cam Ward
Coinflip (3): Shedeur Sanders, Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart
Dart (1): Tyler Shough
Running Back
Lock (2): Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton
Coinflip (1): TreVeyon Henderson
Wide Receiver
Lock (1): Matthew Golden
Probable (1): Tet McMillan
Coinflip (1): Emeka Egbuka
Dart (2): Luther Burden, Jayden Higgins
Tight End
Lock (2): Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland
Maybe (1): Mason Taylor
Dart (1): Elijah Arroyo
Offensive Line
Lock (3): Will Campbell, Armand Membou, Kelvin Banks
Probable (2): Tyler Booker, Grey Zabel
Coinflip (2): Josh Conerly, Josh Simmons
Maybe (1): Donovan Jackson
Dart (2): Aireontae Ersery, Jared Wilson
Edge
Lock (2): Abdul Carter, Mykel Williams
Probable (1): Shemar Stewart
Coinflip (2): Mike Green, Donovan Ezeiruaku
Maybe (2): Nic Scourton, James Pearce
Dart (4): Landon Jackson, Jordan Burch, Femi Oladejo, J.T. Tuimoloau
Interior DL
Lock (2): Mason Graham, Derrick Harmon
Probable (2): Walter Nolen, Kenneth Grant
Dart (1): Tyleik Williams
Linebacker
Lock (1): Jalon Walker
Coinflip (1): Jihaad Campbell
Dart (1): Carson Schwesinger
Cornerback
Lock (2): Travis Hunter, Will Johnson
Probable (1): Jahdae Barron
Coinflip (2): Maxwell Hairston, Trey Amos
Dart (3): Benjamin Morrison, Azareye'h Thomas, Shavon Revel
Safety
Lock (1): Malaki Starks
Probable (1): Nick Emmanwori
Overall
Lock - 17
Probable - 8
Coinflip - 14
Maybe - 4
Dart - 15
What stands out to me most is just the sheer number of prospects who have a chance to hear their names called. 58 total prospects are listed here with just 17 locks. That matches the general talk around this class, which is that it is full of “starters, not stars”. While there is a lot of consensus right now in mocks, it is likely that we see a few surprises on draft day.
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