Finding the First 31

I plan on releasing my penultimate mock draft later this week, but a big part of that process is first trying to get a handle on who will be drafted in the first round regardless of team.

This exercise will (hopefully) accomplish exactly that. I will give a rundown of each position in the draft, and sort prospects into the following categories:

Lock - 99% chance of going Round 1

Probable - 75%

Coinflip - 50%

Maybe - 25%

Dart - 10%

This is not a particularly scientific method — I’m not basing this off of percentage of mock drafts or anything like that. It is simply a general representation of each position based on feel.

At the end, I’ll summarize exactly what the picture looks like with a week and change to go. My hope is this proves useful both for mock drafting and draft betting.

Quarterback

Lock (4): Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis

Coinflip (1): Hendon Hooker

This one is fairly straightforward. We should see four QBs come off the board in the first 11 picks. Hooker is an interesting case as a QB5. Typically, these are players to fade on Day 1, but Hooker was on first-round track prior to sustaining his ACL injury. The buzz he has gotten throughout the process has been consistent, including Daniel Jeremiah saying he expects Hooker to stick on the draft’s first day.

Running Back

Lock (1): Bijan Robinson

Maybe (1): Jahmyr Gibbs

Robinson is a slam-dunk first-rounder as a top-five graded player on most boards. Gibbs has a chance to make the back-end of the first if someone values his pass-catching and dynamism enough to eschew position value.

Wide Receiver

Lock (1): Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Probable (2): Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers

Coinflip (1): Quentin Johnston

Maybe (1): Jalin Hyatt

Dart (3): Josh Downs, Cedric Tillman, Jonathan Mingo

This is a tricky position in 2023 after the 2022 draft saw six WRs go on Day 1. This year’s class seems to be severely underwhelming by comparison. JSN is probably the safest Round 1 prospect, even if he ends up not being the top WR on everyone’s board. If Addison or Flowers were to go ahead of him, there is some chance the other still falls into Day 2.

Johnston started the process as a seemingly sure-fire first-round pick, but I lean second round right now — definitely fringey. There is some cannibalism here with the back-end players, feels like a max-one situation. Hyatt’s speed separates him from the darts, where Tillman and Mingo get a mention given their size relative to their peers.

Tight End

Probable (2): Dalton Kincaid, Michael Mayer

Maybe (1): Darnell Washington

Dart (2): Sam LaPorta, Luke Musgrave

I think we get at least one and at most three TEs in the first, with Kincaid as the favorite to be the first selected. Mayer was a golden child entering this process, but did not test well and may be sliding down boards. Washington is a physical freak and could command attention over Mayer.

LaPorta and Musgrave have gotten buzz as potential firsts due to their athleticism at a position that seems to command it, but certainly seem unlikely to actually make the cut.

Offensive Line

Lock (4): Peter Skoronski, Paris Johnson, Darnell Wright, Broderick Jones

Probable (1): Anton Harrison

Coinflip (4): O’Cyrus Torrence, Steve Avila, John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippmann

Dart (3): Dawand Jones, Jaelyn Duncan, Matthew Bergeron

There isn’t a top-five option on the line in this class, but we should see a run of linemen in the 7-19 range. After that, Harrison figures to be the next tackle off the board. Josh Norris went so far as to put him 17th in his mock draft.

The interior linemen are slated to come off in the 20-31 range, with presumably one each of the Tippmann/Schmitz and Torrence/Avila groups. Teams such as Seattle (20), the Giants (25), Dallas (26), and Buffalo (27) could all be looking for interior line help.

Edge Rusher

Lock (5): Will Anderson, Tyree Wilson, Nolan Smith, Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy

Coinflip (2): Keion White, Will McDonald

Maybe (1): Felix Anudike-Uzomah

Dart (3): B.J. Ojulari, Derick Hall, Tuli Tuipulota

This is probably the strongest position group in the class, with up to four possible top-10 options, and some potential variance outside of the top two in terms of preference. Murphy’s age and athleticism could vault him to EDGE3 on some boards, but all five players should comfortably make Day 1.

White’s invite to the draft itself gives some more comfort about his potential status, but it is still not a lock. McDonald is undersized, but Lance Zierlein commented “he’s going way higher than this” when picking at 31 in a mock draft on Prospects to Pros.

Defensive Line

Lock (1): Jalen Carter

Coinflip (2): Adetomiwa Adebawore, Calijah Kancey

Maybe (2): Mazi Smith, Bryan Bresee

Dart (1): Keeanu Benton

Carter will likely be a top-10 pick, but there aren’t many other good bets for Day 1 selection. Adebawore and Kancey are undersized three-techs, and we may only see one of them go in the first round. Smith and Bresee are more traditional interior linemen, but don’t have the same buzz. Smith in particular is a physical freak. Benton gets a mention so Solak will remain friends with me.

Linebacker

Maybe (3): Jack Campbell, Drew Sanders, Trenton Simpson

Probably the worst position group in the class, all three of these guys are lower-probability first-round candidates, and I would imagine at most one of them actually makes it. Campbell and Sanders have gotten the most publicity, but Simpson has the superior athletic profile, and had a 30 visit with the Cowboys.

Defensive Back

Lock (3): Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez, Joey Porter Jr.

Probable (1): Deonte Banks

Coinflip (1): Emmanuel Forbes, Brian Branch

Maybe (2): Tyrique Stevenson, D.J. Turner

Dart (3): Kelee Ringo, Cam Smith, Julius Brents

I’m lumping all of the defensive backs together simply because the only one who may be considered a safety (Branch) is listed as a corner on NFL dot com, which could impact betting markets.

Banks is heading toward lock territory due to his excellent athletic profile and growing buzz. He may even end up coming off the board before Porter, though his NFL bloodline makes me find it hard to believe he slips too far.

The aforementioned Branch is said to be a sharp football mind, but did not test terribly well, and it has dropped him into the coinflip range. Forbes is undersized, but seems to be further solidifying himself as a first-round pick. Peter Schrager mentioned him as a player expected to go higher than he’s been listed in mock drafts on Good Morning Football.

Stevenson also finds himself on this list, but has received less buzz overall. This cornerback class is deep, with plenty of different types of prospects. We could see as many as seven selected on Day 1.

Overall Count

Lock — 19

Probable — 6

Coinflip — 11

Maybe — 11

Dart — 15

If we math it out based on the (very rough) percentages listed, we get 33.25 players — pretty close! This draft offers so many options. Even though we have 19 “locks”, there are still 62 players I’ve identified as potential first-round candidates. This matches a lot of the chatter around this draft, which is that from ~15 to 50 there may not be much of a difference in player quality.

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