2023 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

We are 50 days away from the NFL Draft, which means it is time to start parsing out what could happen on April 27th. The information should only get better as the draft stove heats up. Let’s get into it!

As most do, I feel fairly confident the Bears will not be making this pick on Thursday. This is a draft with four high-end QB prospects, and with the benefits of having a rookie QB contract on the books widely known throughout football, expect there to be tons of interest for a bunch of these picks in the top portion of the draft. So who could they target in a trade down?

Ben Devine@Chicago_NFL

According to @Eric_Edholm, Texas Tech DE Tyree Wilson said he has met with the Chicago #Bears twice. He just might be the target in any trade down.

3:36 PM · Mar 1, 2023

18 Reposts · 326 Likes

It’s possible they prefer Will Anderson, but it sounds like the plan out of Chicago is (correctly) to trade down twice if possible (presumably with the Texans/Colts, then Raiders/Panthers). That makes Wilson more likely than Anderson in my opinion.

This is the name Houston has been seemingly connected to the most, including a mention from Lance Zierlein who I tend to trust with all things Houston. For now, Young is the clubhouse leader. It is worth mentioning that there have been some Jimmy Garoppolo rumors out of Houston as well, which would seemingly make more sense if your preferred pick was Anthony Richardson.

The chalk. Monti Ossenfort is a first-year GM who has spent the majority of his career with the Patriots. Patriot Way (TM) would say to trade back here, and there should be some interest in the pick. With that said, Arizona would likely also be interested in a young, high-character prospect at a premium position (Bama/Pats pipeline as a bonus!).

The Colts could go in a number of ways, as new head coach Shane Steichen has found success with all types of QBs ranging from Justin Herbert to Jalen Hurts. There is also a decent chance that Jim Irsay will have his hand in this. Right now, I lean Stroud.

Seattle just re-signed Geno Smith to an extremely team-friendly contract, and it should not prevent them from selecting a QB with this pick if the right opportunity presents itself. Richardson has been the fit most noted in media, and also makes a ton of sense given their situation. The Seahawks have Smith in tow, and can take a high-upside swing with a pick they don’t expect to have again for a while.

Detroit absolutely needs help in the secondary, and is expected to take one of the top corners assuming they don’t get involved in any of the QB sweepstakes. Gonzalez tested excellently at the Combine, and is ahead in what I would consider a 60/40 race with Devon Witherspoon.

This is where things start to get interesting. With so many teams in need of a QB, the Raiders would likely have to move up in order to secure their preferred signal-caller. In this exercise, I have them as the odd man out. Plan B for them could be offensive line, where Jones draws comparisons to Ikem Ekwonu — who was a top-10 pick in last year’s draft — athletically.

Daniel Jeremiah@MoveTheSticks

6:48 PM · Mar 5, 2023

19 Reposts · 140 Likes

This tackle class feels largely unsettled, but I could see Jones being the first one off the board.

Carter’s draft stock is a bit of a mystery following his arrest, but I would still tentatively expect him to stick inside the top 10. Terry Fontenot has displayed a penchant for taking the best player available, and Carter is absolutely a potentially dominant player at his position.

David Tepper just concluded a failed experiment with Matt Rhule, and has tried a litany of different QB options who have failed. Call it desperation, competitiveness, whatever — Carolina is getting a QB (presumably through a trade up). I don’t really have a strong lean on who their top prospect is, but could definitely see interest in the protypically-sized Levis.

Is he a tackle or a guard? That is going to be the question asked throughout the draft process given Skoronski’s 32 1/4” arms. Fortunately, that is not a problem for Philly, who has an opening at right guard with Isaac Seumalo a free agent. Skoronski has the flexibility to play inside or out, and would be a good long-term addition for a team that generally prioritizes the trenches.

Tennessee has a major deficiency up front, and should look to replenish the trenches while going through what appears to be a rebuilding year. Mike Vrabel has the pipeline with Ohio State as well.

Houston went with the secondary over the pass rush last year, and go opposite here, buying on the traits of Van Ness. Receiver is a popular position to mock here, but I’m not really seeing a prospect worthy of this level of a pick. They can likely address receiver/tight end on Day 2 (34, 66, 74). Remember, Nick Caserio took part in just ONE first-round WR selection (N’Keal Harry, 2018) during his tenure with New England.

Jets certainly need to improve their protection with Aaron Rodgers (potentially) coming in, and the rest of the offense largely settled. Daniel Jeremiah noted that Wright is a “plug and play starter at right tackle” who he thinks will be a top-15 pick on the most recent Move the Sticks pod.

Reading between the lines here, Jeremiah — who has close connections with the Jets — may be looking at New York taking a right tackle and letting them figure it out on the left side between Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton.

Pats receivers coach Troy Brown got to work with Flowers closely at the Shrine Bowl, and New England desperately needs to improve the weaponry for Mac Jones — especially if Jakobi Meyers leaves in free agency.

Last year, we noted the trends of Green Bay’s front office en route to a Quay Walker selection.

Pat Sime@patinmadison

@jacobandersonWI @zachkruse2 GB’s average age for first and second round picks since 2018 is 21.5 and their average RAS for those picks is 9.17.

3:42 PM · Apr 7, 2022

5 Likes

The Packers have a deficit at pass-catcher, and likely prefer the more athletic Washington versus presumed TE1 Michael Mayer.

Especially with the Jordan Love era set to begin, Washington would be an asset in a presumed run-heavy attack.

Witherspoon could go as high as six to Detroit, but falls here to the CB-needy Commanders. I would be surprised if he made it further than 17.

His father played and coached with the Steelers for over 20 years. Pittsburgh has a need at corner. Maybe I’m making this too simple, but it seems simple for something 7 weeks away.

When you have two first-round picks, it becomes a lot easier to take a “luxury” pick at RB — especially in a poor class overall. D’Andre Swift seemingly never escapes the doghouse, and will be a free agent at the end of 2023.

Tampa recently cut starting tackle Donovan Smith, and are still $50M over the cap. This is likely going to be a punt season for them where the hope is to acquire one of the top picks in the 2024 draft (and Caleb Williams/Drake Maye). In a mini teardown, it would make sense to find a young player at a premium position. Murphy doesn’t turn 22 until January 2024.

Seattle loves drafting 24-year-old edge guys. I’m not kidding — Boye Mafe (2022, pick 40), Darrell Taylor (2020, 48), and LJ Collier (2019, 29) were all 24 years old as rookies. May as well add Keion White to the mix.

There has been a lot of discussion around the Charger offense this off-season. The solution to their problems is simple: this team needs speed. Enter Hyatt, who ran a 4.4 at the Combine, and consistently made long plays happen for the Vols in 2022.

Baltimore needs more weapons, and JSN is arguably the best WR in the class. The slot is open as Rashod Bateman has typically lined up outside.

I think Smith could potentially go much higher than this by draft day — maybe even in the top 10 — but I couldn’t find a place for him there just yet in my mock. He torched the Combine, and this class doesn’t have a big gap from around the edge of the top 10 to pick 40.

Jacksonville’s top needs are in the secondary, and Branch could fill multiple roles for them after playing both safety and nickel back at Bama.

Daniel Jones is back, but he needs more weapons. Johnston is a true outside WR would complement Wan’Dale Robinson and Isaiah Hodgins well. Zay Flowers is another option if he is available. I am not sure the team would take one of the slot types given their investment in Robinson last year.

Dallas should be aggressively looking for more pass-catching options to help Dak Prescott. After deciding to franchise tag Tony Pollard, Dalton Schultz is an unrestricted free agent. Kincaid has the potential to step in and be better right away in his role.

It isn’t sexy, but Buffalo will be looking to shore up the offensive line this off-season. Torrence performed well at the Senior Bowl, and should be one of the top interior linemen off the board.

TE is a very popular pick for Cincy, and I am willing to oblige here with Mayer still on the board. Offensive line is another possible route.

Now that New Orleans has Derek Carr, they need to provide the artillery needed to create a quality offense. Chris Olave is a do-it-all wideout, and Rashid Shaheed made splash plays with his speed on the outside.

Philly will likely take a corner with one of their first-round picks given that James Bradberry is a free agent.

Kansas City did not tag Orlando Brown, and will likely be looking at cheaper replacement options via the draft.

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