Last year the Mustangs had a noticeable slip.
It was predictable. I worried on their behalf about winning again at a high level while reloading on defense and lacking an obvious star outside receiver. It turned out the Mustangs did fine on defense and were about as good as one might have expected outside at receiver. They did lose ground in the run game without Brashard Smith at running back and Roderick Daniels, Jr. in the slot.
So while they had replacements everywhere that were pretty good, without elite firepower outside, they couldn’t navigate a tougher schedule. The 2025 slate of opponents included eventual National Runner-Up Miami, Clemson, and a tougher ACC draw. Interestingly enough, the Mustangs actually won all of those but dropped early non-conference games to in-state rivals Baylor and TCU and conference road trips against Wake Forest and Cal.
On the year they finished 29th in offensive FEI, 35th in defensive FEI, and scored 32.2 ppg while yielding just 20.5. It was a solid season spoiled by the early losses that resulted mostly from weaker play in the secondary (cornerback in particular) but also from not quite having enough firepower in the rebuilt offense.
If you look at the Mustang roster and 2026 schedule, they have a much better chance to get back to the playoffs than they did in 2025. It’s hard to find many teams better situated to claim a spot…
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