Iran War update #45: Heading back to war?

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The latest round of U.S.-Iran fighting is not like the previous round, and it might spell the end of the ceasefire.

It seems that the cause of this latest flare-up was the same sort of misunderstanding which has plagued U.S.-Iran diplomacy since the beginning of this conflict.

So far as I can piece together, the Trump administration thought that it had reached a tacit agreement with Iran not to engage in fighting during the funeral of Ali Khamenei, the former Supreme Leader who died on the first day of the conflict. Then Iran attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump got really pissed and ordered retaliation, and now we’re in a general spiral.

At the root of all of this are the same two fundamental problems that have made this peace process look doomed from the beginning: (a) the two sides are far apart on many issues, especially control of the Strait of Hormuz, with no apparent way to bring them closer together; and (b) both sides seem to believe that they have the upper hand militarily and that the other is afraid to escalate, so it’s safe to pressure them.

The reason this round of fighting looks more serious than the last is that the U.S. has dramatically escalated both the quantity of sites it has hit and also the type of target. Its strikes are partly aimed at trying to neutralize capabilities that Iran has moved near the strait during the ceasefire, but U.S. forces have also hit some general regime targets - particularly Basij (militia) and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities in coastal cities. On top of that, the U.S. has reversed its sanctions waiver on Iranian oil, which was the main thing that Iran was getting out of this process so far. It’s hard to see how Iran doesn’t come back hard in response.

But then what happens next?