Stubborn Things, Stubborn Thought: Thinking Through Development’s Crossroads Moment

In order to meet international development’s “crossroads moment,” we should start by recognizing how much the world has changed since the days when our most notable assistance programs were first created. What are some of those changes?

First, and most obviously, technology. There have been headline-grabbing breakthroughs, from new vaccines and medical treatments to satellites and generative AI. But there have also been tech-related innovations that, while making little news back here, have also lifted lives in much of the world. They’re affordable, impactful, and within reach of everyday communities and families…the innovations driven by “frugal technology.”

In villages across Africa, mobile phones are being used by family farmers to get real time prices for their crops and receive satellite-guided weather forecasts accurate to the square mile. Health officials are using phones to send test results to patients and share those results with distant specialists. Inexpensive drones are being used to transport fresh blood supplies and medicines to distant villages and hard-to-reach urban neighborhoods. 3D printers are being used to produce components for water pumps, prosthetics for special needs patients, and even micro weather stations. [For a Stubborn Thing on frugal innovation in Africa, see https://open.substack.com/pub/ambmarkgreen1/p/critical-minerals-critical-minds-1a9?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios.]

A second major change —one that has quietly reshaped the incentives for many governments and businesses— is the evolving composition of financial flows into the developing world. For decades, government aid (often called official development assistance, or “ODA”) made up more than eighty percent of those monies. Even before the deep cuts of 2025, ODA had fallen to below ten percent…because other components have risen dramatically by comparison. Trade and investment is on the rise, thanks to expanding transportation and communication networks and improved incomes in many parts of Africa, Asia, and the rest of the Americas.

Remittances — the funds workers overseas send to families and individuals back home— are expanding even more rapidly than foreign direct investment. According to the World Bank, in 2023, nearly $660 billion flowed through remittances into low and middle income countries—and that’s just the money flowing through official or formal channels. That same year —obviously well before Trump Era cuts— remittances were several times larger than all of the ODA provided by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) donor nations.

A third major change is that, for developing world governments looking for financial assistance and foreign investment, the U.S. and Europe are no longer the only “game in town.” For a growing number, China has become, if not the partner of choice, then the partner of immediate availability. Beijing has a larger diplomatic presence in the developing world than the U.S. does, and for more than three decades, Chinese foreign ministers have made their first overseas trip of the year to somewhere in Africa.

China’s arrival on the scene doesn’t simply change the geographic source of the money flowing, it also changes its form and long term consequences. According to analysis from William and Mary’s AidData research lab, for every one dollar that China provides in ODA, it now lends $35. Its financing portfolio, AidData says, has reached $2.1 trillion, making it the world’s largest official creditor. [For a recent Stubborn Thing on China’s role, see https://open.substack.com/pub/ambmarkgreen1/p/stubborn-thingsself-reliance-vs-debt?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios]

A fourth change, one that will shape the policies and decision making of developing world leaders for years to come, is the changing nature of their human landscape. Seventy percent of Africans are now under the age of 30, and in some countries, the median age is only about 16. Over the next decade, according to the World Bank, 450 million Africans will become of working age, while the continent is on track to create for them only 100-150 million jobs. In many places, the population is not only younger, but it’s increasingly in motion as well. Worldwide, the level of forced human displacement has now reached approximately 120 million people. In each of the last several years, approximately 340,000 people were born displaced. And forced displacement is higher in Africa than anywhere else. [For a Stubborn Thing on Africa’s changing human landscape, see https://open.substack.com/pub/ambmarkgreen1/p/stubborn-things-more-jobs-but-what?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios.]

How can we possibly hope for our approach to international development to succeeds unless it takes these changes into account?

Next, Pt. 3, “Looking ahead.”

[For Pt. 1, see https://open.substack.com/pub/ambmarkgreen1/p/stubborn-things-stubborn-thought?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios]