When IO, the studio behind Hitman, came out and said they’re making a Bond game, the industry reaction was about as close to unanimous as these things get. I was among the chuffed. And anyone who’s played a chunk of Hitman: World of Assassination can spot the Bond influence a mile off.
007 First Light, which launched on May 17, is great. I’ve put in a decent chunk of hours so far, and it nails IO signature stealth expertise into a high-octane James Bond origin story, shedding the slower, puzzle-like pacing of Hitman in ffor fluid forward momentum and Uncharted-like action.
Across lush global locations, First Light seamlessly shifts between infiltration, cinematic driving sequences, high-stakes social bluffs, and intense open combat. Focusing on a reckless, 26-year-old Bond earning his license to kill was a smart move, with narrative freshness that the franchise hasn’t seen in over a decade.
IO has truly succeeded in this pivot, pulling in some of the year’s strongest critical reception out of the gate. The commercial response so far is matching, too. Yesterday, IOI announced that 007 shifted 1.5M copies in its first 24 hours.
Let’s dig into our estimates for Steam, where players have really shown up for Bond.
Almost 500K Steam copies sold in three days
Looking at our Steam numbers, 007 First Light has now sold over 450K copies on Valve’s platform, generating over $25M in gross revenue there.
It’s the latest example of a traditionally ‘’console’’ game doing fantastic numbers on Steam, joining the likes of Forza, Resident Evil, and Pragmata this year.
Our estimates show that 007 First Light's wishlist-to-buyer conversion is about 1.5% so far. The launch-window cohort buys at full price the moment a game drops, so they don’t need a Steam notification to know it's out.
We'll be back to this conversion data next week, alongside the console estimates for 007. Hit subscribe below to get that in your inbox.
As you’d expect, many of these first-three-day players are that cohort of gamers who buy practically everything. They’re the early-adopter base that shows up at full price for the zeitgeist releases, and they’re the audience that drives launch-week metrics across pretty much every AAA release we cover.
Looking at the Steam audience crossover, the early 007 First Light buyer is the same player who’s been buying every major release this year:
37% played Resident Evil Requiem (February)
28% played Crimson Desert (March)
21% played Slay the Spire 2 (March)
18% played Pragmata (April)
The pattern continues even with releases from this month. 21% of First Light‘s Steam players also picked up Forza Horizon 6, 19% played Subnautica 2, and around 10% played last week’s Lego Batman on Steam.
That’s the same cross-shopping cohort showing up release after release. The launch-window AAA buyer is a finite, identifiable group, and 007 First Light has captured a meaningful slice of it.
Another expected data point is the IOI halo effect. About a third of 007 First Light players on Steam have also played Hitman. And the crossover numbers are even higher on console. We’ll be diving into more of the 007 console numbers next week.
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IOI’s phenomenal work on the Hitman trilogy is doing real work pulling fans into 007. The studio has spent the past decade building one of the strongest reputations in the industry for tightly designed action-stealth, and that reputation is converting directly into 007 First Light sales.
Plenty of IOI fans who picked up First Light are even playing Hitman games this month alongside it. 9% of First Light’s Steam players also played Hitman World of Assassination in May.
007 is attracting China’s Steam players
The regional split for 007 First Light genuinely surprised me. China is the #2 Steam market for the game so far, with 18% of players, second only to the US’s 29%.
That’s a substantial Chinese audience for a Western-developed AAA title without an obvious Chinese cultural hook. The UK is #3 on Steam with 6%, higher than usual, for obvious cultural-hook reasons.
Our Steam review sentiment data shows the combat in particular is landing well with Chinese players, who consistently praise the responsiveness and the cinematic quality of the action. IOI’s regional efforts have clearly paid off.
For example, the studio’s participation in BiliBili Game First Look (a special preview event hosted by BiliBili in Shanghai) put 007 First Light in front of influencers and the audience in China well ahead of release.
First Light also had decent regional pricing, with the Chinese version costing the equivalent of about $44 (37% cheaper than the US pricing).
007 First Light is a slightly different version of the same thesis that worked for Stellar Blade (which also had an awesome Chinese dub). Without a Chinese-language dub or a culturally specific hook, IOI has still pulled in a fifth of its launch Steam audience from China just by treating it as a market that deserves, y’know, marketing attention.
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We said it before, and we’ll say it again: China remains an underrated growth lever for Western publishers on Steam. It’s challenging, sure, but the results can be worth it.
GoldenEye nostalgia is showing up too
There’s a Bond fandom layer underneath the IOI fandom as well. Around 40% of 007 First Light‘s Xbox players (console, PC, and cloud) also played the 2023 port of N64 classic GoldenEye 007. The old-man nostalgia is real.
The caveat is that 92% of those GoldenEye players came in through Game Pass, and the engagement wasn’t great: 74% played GoldenEye for under an hour, 92% played for under five hours.
When publishers announce player numbers for subscription-included games (instead of copies sold), it’s worth considering these kinds of things.
So the GoldenEye crossover doesn’t necessarily reflect deep engagement with that specific game. But it does reflect a meaningful crossover with older Bond fandom and curiosity.
What’s next for Bond?
For Amazon, which owns the Bond rights and licensed IOI to make this game, the early signs are bloody good. The franchise hasn’t had a quality game adaptation in decades, and IOI has now delivered one that looks like a serious commercial proposition.
The follow-up question is whether Amazon doubles down on the IOI relationship for sequels and DLC, or treats this as a one-off licence experiment. The data so far strongly supports the former. But Amazon’s gaming strategy is certainly … something.
Anyway, we’ll be back to 007 First Light with deeper metrics after the first full week of data is in. The early numbers are good. The retention curve and the discount sensitivity over the coming months are the harder tests.
Hit subscribe above to get the deeper analysis, including more console data, when it lands.
Celebrating one year of the Alinea Insight
It’s been a year since we hit publish on the first edition of the Alinea Insight. Since then, we’ve put out almost 90 newsletters, racked up thousands of Substack subscribers, 50K monthly visitors, and around half a million unique readers.
It’s been an absolute pleasure digging into our games data and providing context for releases big and small. We’re also genuinely chuffed that some of the biggest outlets in games (IGN, GameSpot, Giant Bomb) and media in general (Forbes, the BBC, the Guardian) have been consistently covering our data over the last twelve months.
The greatest pleasure, though, is getting to work directly with the teams who actually make the games we love. In the last year alone, we’ve signed almost 40 institutional clients, including some of the most prominent names in the industry, and tripled our annual recurring revenue.
What still gets me, on a personal level, is that I get to work with some of my heroes on properties that mean a huge amount to me.
Games genuinely saved my life (maybe a story for another time), and having even a small part in the industry that made them is the kind of thing I’m not sure I’ll ever get used to.
Right, gratuitous self-reflection out of the way. Before we finish, let’s look at your most requested Alinea Analytics estimates.
Your most requested Alinea Analytics estimates
Across X, LinkedIn, and Reddit, we asked you – the readers – which Alinea estimates you’d like to see most. Here goes (remember: they’re sold through, so no unsold retail copies):
Marathon: Almost 1.5M sold, with 68% on Steam, 19% on PS5, and 13% on Xbox
Forza Horizon 6: 6M sold, with 3.1M on Steam and 2.9M on Xbox.
Saros: Almost 400K sold on PS5.
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Anno: Mutationem: Almost 250K sold across Steam (73%), PlayStation (24%), and Xbox (3%).
Monster Hunter Stories 3: Almost 500K sold across Steam (66%), PlayStation (29%), and Xbox (5%).
Looking for a different estimate?
As always, we’re offering a free trial of our platform for games companies. Send us a message here, or reply to this email, and we’ll set you up.
The last word
Reply to this email – or reach out here – if you have any feedback for the newsletter – or want to request a game for us to cover.
[Alinea Analytics boasts the most accurate PC and console estimates in the business. Game makers use our platform to understand their audience, keep an eye on the competition, monitor sales trends, and spot new opportunities. We equip game studios and financial institutions with accurate data and the confidence to make smarter, data-driven decisions. Want to talk about all things games market data? We’d love to chat!]
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