Abraham Accords and normalization

Iranian forces have succeeded in damaging American bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. They’ve destroyed the perception of American military superiority, which was regarded as contributing to the security of the host countries. In many cases the host countries paid for the bases occupied by American forces—and now their return on investment appears to be negative.

The UAE particularly, which has invested decades of effort and untold resources in appearing stable and safe, looks weak, insecure, dangerous and exposed. Iranian missiles and drones appear to have succeeded in disrupting the CIA and Mossad networks that operated fairly openly in that country. They have attacked the most expensive hotels where American and Israeli spies and military personnel have embedded themselves among civilians.

It’s not clear what will happen to the vast foreign investments in commercial and residential real estate in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. But it is clear that the logic of hosting American bases does not hold any more: Iranians attacked where those bases exist; security lies in not hosting American bases.

Similarly, it’s not clear what the Gulf monarchies have gotten for permitting the Mossad and other Israeli military actors to penetrate their cities, apart from being targeted by Iranian missiles and drones. Whatever security or economic benefit was supposed to be conferred by the Abraham Accords is overwhelmed by the association with the Israelis, clearly.

It seems reasonable to conclude that the Israelis will emerge from this war looking radioactive—as in few countries in the region will want to play host to their military or spies, as the UAE has done for several years now.

In other words, the Abraham Accords may be over. And any hope for normalization along with it. There is no security in a pact with a country that starts wars, and cannot protect itself. The big question for me is how much that logic will apply to America as well.