Thank you for reading The Vantage Briefing, your weekly roundup of key developments shaping business, investment, and economic trends in Africa & Southeast Asia.
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The World Bank projects that Ivory Coast’s economy will expand by 6.2% in 2025, continuing an impressive trajectory that saw average growth of 8.2% between 2012 and 2020. Key drivers remain hydrocarbons, mining, and services. The growth outlook is anchored in hydrocarbons, mining, and services, sectors that have diversified the economy beyond its traditional reliance on cocoa. Offshore oil and gas discoveries, expanding gold production, and a rapidly growing service sector are reinforcing Côte d’Ivoire’s role as a regional hub… Read More
As Western automakers retreat from South Africa, Chinese brands are being courted to step in. BYD and Chery already lead a wave of low-cost imports, with Geely, Leapmotor, and Changan soon to follow. The government is reviewing tariffs to slow imports and push local production. Many doubt the move will yield much fruit as Chinese automakers rarely invest heavily abroad, relying instead on efficient home plants and only minimal local assembly to bypass tariffs. South Africa may get showpiece facilities, not the deep Chinese-led industrial base it seeks… Read More
South Africa’s president recently pledged to emulate Zimbabwe’s post-independence policies, a path that has left its neighbor stuck in poverty. The move has rattled confidence, with many investors now viewing South Africa as a no-go zone until its politics stabilize.
The middle-income trap occurs when export-led growth stalls before high-income status. Economies plateau around $10k-12k per capita if they fail to move into design, technology, and intellectual property. Escaping requires openness to foreign capital, channeling savings into productive industries, strong rule of law, and supportive demographics. Southeast Asia shows both progress and limits, while South Africa illustrates how weak institutions and lost demographics entrench stagnation..… Read More
The US venture capital arm of a global nonprofit has raised $61.6 million, nearly double the size of its pilot fund, to back dozens of startups that provide financial services in Africa, at a time when interest in African startups from Silicon Valley has cooled. Investors include the Dutch bank FMO, France’s development agency Proparco, and the Ford Foundation… Read More
Africa has just 46k miles of rail across the entire continent compared to 132k in Europe, 93k in China, and 155k in the USA. This shortfall is striking given that Africa is larger than the U.S., China, India, and most of Europe combined, spanning over 11.7 million square miles, nearly three times the size of Europe.
Saudi Arabia's Vision Invest took part in a $700 million capital raise by pan-African industrial zone developer ARISE Integrated Industrial Platforms. It is the Saudi holding company's first foray into Africa, and the largest every private infrastructure transaction in Africa according to Dubai-based ARISE… Read More
Walmart is set to roll out its first Walmart-branded stores in South Africa by the end of 2025, marking the retailer’s first direct use of its name in Africa despite owning Massmart for more than a decade. Walmart acquired a 51% stake in Massmart in 2011 for $2.3 billion, then bought out the remaining shares in 2022 for $377 million, taking full control and delisting the company from Johannesburg’s exchange. The move raises questions of overlap, since Walmart’s format is similar to Game and Makro, which already operate about 150 stores across South Africa… Read More
How can businesses raise debt funding at such high interest rates? Reducing rates means naira devaluation which already is one of the worst performing currencies over a three-year period. Difficult decisions remain for Nigeria’s leadership: stabilize the currency or unlock growth… Read More
Ninety One CEO Hendrik du Toit warned that South Africa is engulfed by crime and corruption, with a government too weak to respond. Ninety One, formerly part of Investec, is among the country’s largest asset managers. His remarks stand out in a business community where CEOs have long preferred silence or private grumbling over public criticism.
Two other major rail corridors are advancing alongside the Lobito Corridor (Angola - DRC - Zambia) and they include TAZARA (Tanzania - Zambia) and the Nacala Corridor (Mozambique - Malawi - Zambia). Their progress doesn't diminish Lobito, instead they confirm the opportunity and that the timing is right.
💠 TAZARA
Built in the 1970s as the “Uhuru Railway,” it was China’s first large overseas infrastructure project and a lifeline for Zambia’s copper exports during sanctions. After decades of underinvestment, Beijing is now proposing a $1.4 billion upgrade to modernize tracks, rolling stock, and operations. If realized, TAZARA would again tie Zambia’s minerals to the port of Dar es Salaam under Chinese stewardship.
💠 NACALA CORRIDOR
Japan has long been present here, from early agricultural projects to modern transport investments. The rehabilitation of Nacala Port, financed with Japanese backing, is giving landlocked Malawi and eastern Zambia a fresh outlet to the Indian Ocean.
💠 LOBITO CORRIDOR
Lobito is shaping up to be more than a mineral export route. It stands out and is evolving into a broader economic corridor. Backed by the U.S., EU, and African partners, Lobito already has a 30-year concession in place, with trains running to the Atlantic and committed capital flowing with $455 million in Angola and $100 million in the DRC, and extensions toward Zambia under active study which would bring the total investment over $1 billion.
💡 A striking detail is that all three corridors begin in Zambia. That’s no accident as Zambia sits on vast copper and cobalt reserves essential for electric vehicles, batteries, and power grids. How Lusaka leverages this unique position remains to be seen.
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