By Jeremy Gaines and Christian Hiller von Gaertringen
The IMF apparently had good news for Africa in July. Economic growth is expected to remain high in 2026 and 2027, at least as far as sub-Saharan Africa is concerned.
Unfortunately, the IMF still divides the African continent into two parts. Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt are for some unknown reason grouped with the Middle East. The rest is designated as Sub-Saharan Africa. This is a division of the continent as if the Ottoman Empire still existed, although it ended more than 100 years ago, in November 1922, or, for that matter, as if we were still dealing with the ancient Rashidun and Umayyad Caliphates of pre-Medieval times.
A year ago, the IMF expected growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to accelerate from 4.0% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026. The July 2026 Update shows the region did better than that: Growth in 2025 is now estimated to have been 4.5%. But the needle for the 2026 forecast has not moved: it remains lodged at 4.3%, unchanged from a year earlier, and the Fund is explicit that the war in the Middle East is the reason the region isn’t making greater gains compared to its strong 2025 base.
For the global economy, the IMF expects growth to slow from 3.5% in 2025 to 3.0% this year. In Sub-Saharan Africa, by contrast, growth will decelerate only slightly, from 4.5% last year to 4.3% this year. However, the world economic upturn in 2027 will be more dynamic, with the growth rate rising by 40 basis points to 3.4%, compared to Sub-Saharan Africa, for which the IMF expects an increase of only 20 basis points to 4.5%.
So, is the situation in Africa actually looking good? The slump — caused primarily by the Iran war — affects Africa less severely than the rest of the world, and the continent is participating in the upswing nonetheless.
Unfortunately, the situation is not quite as simple as it might seem to be. In fact, the figures in the statistics mask a trend that deeply concerns us.
What awaits you behind the paywall:
The profound changes for Africa in just one year
Which countries benefit from the Iran war and which do not
What Africa has in common with Gulliver
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