Edition 008 of Doing Business in Africa, published earlier this morning, reported that an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was easing oil prices toward $95 to $96. Since publication, the situation has deteriorated materially.
Iran cut off peace talks with the US last week, sending oil sharply higher. Today, US and Iranian forces exchanged fire for a second day, and President Trump threatened to take total control of Iran’s oil industry. A 60-day ceasefire extension was reportedly agreed by negotiators but has not yet been approved by Trump. Prediction markets currently put the odds of a permanent peace deal by June 15 at 9%.
For African net oil importers, the brief easing we reported this morning is now under direct threat. The fiscal relief scenario outlined in Edition 008 remains contingent on a diplomatic resolution that does not currently appear imminent. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed. Budget pressure across South Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia, and the WAEMU zone should be treated as ongoing, not easing.
We will continue monitoring and update subscribers as the situation develops.
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.