August 17, 2026
Oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent crude moving above $90 per barrel. The main drivers were renewed geopolitical risk and supply concerns linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict in the Middle East, including a sharp slowdown in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, recent attacks on vessels in the strait, and continued Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities. Speculative positioning had also turned more bullish.
Our view is that the current “no war, no peace” situation is not sustainable and is likely to lead to further demand destruction and eventual price declines. More details are provided in the inventories discussion below.
Global commercial crude inventories have recently risen to levels not seen since the COVID period for this time of year, according to data from Kpler, as shown in Figure 1. The figure shows weekly trends in global commercial inventories. What does this mean, and what are the implications? Will the build continue? These questions are discussed below.
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