Aug 24, 2026
Oil prices declined by about 2% on Monday due to profit-taking and a lack of additional bullish news. While the media remains fixated on Trump’s new sanctions on Iran, oil continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz amid weak demand. The impact of Trump’s “D-Day” economic sanctions is discussed below, along with issues relate dto Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia. Demand for crude is expected to decline as U.S. refineries begin the maintenance season. The key question is: what will happen to gasoline and diesel stocks then?
Bloomberg: Hormuz Oil Flows Are Going Strong as War Drags On
WSJ: US Says Oil Is Pouring Through Hormuz. Trackers Can’t Find It.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing despite continued security risks and Iranian threats, with the UAE leading efforts to move crude through protected routes along Oman’s coast. Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and now Saudi Arabia are also using alternative arrangements to get barrels through the waterway. The Trump administration says more than 8 mb/d are moving through the strait, but commercial trackers estimate far lower flows of roughly 2–6 mb/d. The discrepancy stems partly from tankers switching off tracking systems.
Figure 1 shows oil-on-water volumes as reported by Kpler. Notice the sharp rise followed by a decline in recent weeks. What caused the increase? What caused the decline? Will we see another rise as refineries in the US and other regions enter fall maintenance, producing a trend similar to that of 2025? We discuss the possibilities below.
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