Dear Readers,
Ten years after its grand launch on 20th April 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — the $50 billion flagship project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — is facing serious roadblocks. Launched during President Xi Jinping’s 2015 visit to Islamabad with promises of transforming Pakistan’s infrastructure and economy, the project today finds itself limping, with more questions than answers.
According to official figures, out of the 92 CPEC projects initially planned, only 38 have been completed, and 23 are still underway. The rest — a whopping $22 billion worth — haven’t even begun. Experts cite two main reasons: worsening security conditions, especially threats to Chinese personnel, and Pakistan’s own governance issues.
The much-hyped Gwadar port, once imagined as the "Singapore of Pakistan," reflects these gaps. While China funded and helped build the country’s largest airport there, the city still lacks basic infrastructure like a steady power supply. A planned coal power plant remains shelved. An official associated with the project even called the vision for Gwadar “flawed from the start.”
Security concerns are now at the core of the CPEC debate. Since 2021, at least 20 Chinese nationals have died and 34 have been injured in 14 targeted attacks, mostly originating from Balochistan, where local militants oppose foreign investments. One expert observed that more Chinese have died in Pakistan than anywhere else in the BRI’s global footprint.
Despite the setbacks, Pakistan and China are now discussing a reboot dubbed “CPEC 2.0.” This new phase is supposed to focus on industrial development, agriculture, and clean energy, but skeptics are not buying the optimism. The centerpiece of this reboot, the $6.8 billion ML-1 railway upgrade, has seen little actual progress since being announced in 2015.
Analysts suggest that China is quietly pulling back. While maintaining diplomatic courtesies, Beijing appears hesitant to commit to new ventures in a country where its citizens remain under threat and its investments are bogged down by inefficiency.
If CPEC 2.0 fails to materialize, it could signal more than the end of a mega-project — it may mark a shift in China’s strategic interest away from Pakistan, perhaps even toward Afghanistan.
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Best Regards
Adnan Aamir
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