Adjusted LTH MVRV (6M-10Y Cohort) - the ratio of market value to realized value (Market Value / Realized Value), calculated not across the full supply base but across a narrow cohort of coins aged from 6 months to 10 years. This is the core of the network’s on-chain base: holders who have already lived through at least one local shock, but are not yet “sleeping” ghost wallets. The metric answers one question: how far the average long-term holder is still in profit relative to cost basis.
Regular MVRV is noisy because of short-term speculators and fresh coins. By stripping out everything younger than 6 months, we get a cleaner view of unrealized P&L for the group that actually moves supply at cycle turning points. When its profit multiple starts compressing from the euphoric peak - that is the first thing that breaks. Before price, before realized cap, before the news flow.
The core idea of this issue: a deep bear-market correction does not begin at the price top. It begins when the profit multiple of the 6M-10Y cohort rolls over and breaks structure. The early stage is rollover, not collapse. The collapse comes 2-4 months later, when the signal has already done its job.
In previous issues, we broke down the decision framework in Decision Architecture for Bitcoin, and today we turn one chart into a working early-warning model.
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