
The Fed Just Blinked. The Market Didn’t.
Three Fed presidents voted for a rate hike on July 29, the first three-way hawkish dissent since September 2016.
Hedge fund research desk for self-directed investors, indices, picks, and financial models.
Subscribe:.rss.atom.json.md.m3u.pls
Live Last read · last published · next check

Three Fed presidents voted for a rate hike on July 29, the first three-way hawkish dissent since September 2016.

The factor working hardest in this market right now is quality, and the surprise is that it is not translating into positive returns.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained more than 4% on July 21, one session after the sector had shed more than $3 trillion in market value since late June.

Quality Compounders gained 1.59% last week while AI Infrastructure lost 2.33% and semiconductors entered bear-market territory.

Netflix beat earnings estimates on Wednesday.

TSMC’s June monthly revenue surged 68% year-over-year, the fastest monthly growth of 2026.

The 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.25% on Monday, its highest level since February 2025, per Bloomberg.

The factor that has been most reliably rewarded over the past several weeks is value, and the sectors where value scores are highest right now are energy and basic materials.

The ACCE Biotech Catalysts index gained 3.72% last week while the AI Infrastructure index slipped 0.61%.

Fifteen trading days after its IPO, SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 tonight, triggering an estimated $4.3 billion in forced passive buying.

The Dow hit a record 52,900.07 on Thursday while the Nasdaq dropped 0.8% the same session, per CNBC.

The Dow briefly touched an intraday record of 52,742.66 on July 1 before retreating to close near flat, per CNBC.

The factor that should be working in a high-rate, high-inflation environment is quality.

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained more than 3% on Sunday, per CNBC, with Astera Labs up roughly 16%, KLA up roughly 12%, and Applied Materials up roughly 11%.

Clean Energy fell 7.34% last week while Defense & Aerospace gained 2.55%.

May PCE came in at 4.1% annually, a three-year high, per CNBC.

The hardest sell in investing is not a losing position.

The Nasdaq is on pace for a 4.4% weekly decline heading into Friday’s close, per CNBC, its worst week since February.

The factor that has worked best over the past 12 months is momentum, and the stocks with the highest momentum scores are among the least defensible businesses on the planet.

The Nasdaq shed 2.21% on Tuesday, per CNBC, and the names doing the most damage were chip and AI infrastructure stocks.