1. The notion that Erdogan will never allow losing, fearing a subsequent trial, may seem plausible but is highly unlikely. Even if he loses, Erdogan will remain the most popular single leader, and his party will still be the largest in parliament.
2. In fact, the opposition alliance might unravel more easily if they win, as their central argument – Erdogan turning Turkey into an autocracy – would be nullified. This would reduce the incentive for the opposition to cooperate.
3. Ironically, Erdogan's loss might strengthen him, as opposition infighting could hinder effective governance. Many opposition members also disagree with the idea of trying Erdogan, fearing it could fracture social cohesion and set a dangerous precedent that would make any leader think twice before relinquishing power.
4. Paradoxically, Erdogan not stepping down might put him in greater danger. Ultimately, Erdogan losing won't be his end.
5. Finally, as Salim Cevik points out, a former president can only be tried by the Supreme Court, and the opposition needs three-quarters of the votes in parliament to send him to the Supreme Court, which is nearly impossible.
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.