Two States, Facing Off | Week #20 Preview

I hope you have multiple screens ready… since Saturday night you’ll have to bounce back and forth between these great games and the USA-Canada showdown.

Pressed for time? Click here to skip to the Pick ‘Em.

Before we jump into this week’s previews, check out my guide to the college hockey game odds calculator that I’ve been using to write these previews if you haven’t already. It’s based on SPAM, with some tweaks to give us a more complete picture.

It’s not a down year for the NCHC per se, as they’re on track to still earn 3 or more tournament bids, but it is a year where some teams have fallen short of expectations.

Denver and North Dakota both fit this bill, albeit to varying degrees.

The Pioneers are just short of where they might want to be. For the reigning national champs, missing out on a 1-seed where they could control their destiny and play in a western regional is important, but realistically not an end-all-be-all.

When you return as much talent as they did, getting in is more important than where. They have depth and can roll out a death star line-up when the going gets tough. The odds are that they will be fine.

North Dakota, however, has completely missed the mark. Injuries, players all over the lineup performing below expectations, and rising competition from ASU and WMU have the sport’s signature brand on the ropes, fighting to stay alive.

They’re currently ranked but are about 10 spots above the expected tournament cut line. Essentially, they need to win their conference tournament or it’s curtains for them quite early this year.

One sign of hope for North Dakota: their defense has been fine? No, seriously. They’re Top 10 in xGoals Against, and in the defensive zone, they have a great grasp of what their responsibilities are.

Defense wins championships, so we get to the NCHC Playoffs, they could get hot and claw their way to a conference title, thus earning a spot in a nice and cozy regional that they’re hosting, where anything could happen.

My match-up to watch: look closely at how quickly their wings jump up into the high ice to engage defensemen with the puck (video: InStat).

The Pioneers’ offense is at its best when they create plays from the perimeter, especially from the point. They have a ridiculous cast of characters to rely on for scoring, led by Zeev Buium who can kickstart a Grade A chance from anywhere.

If North Dakota plays like this, will the aggressive approach stifle the Pioneers’ attempts to take advantage of motion and space? Or will they risk coming out of position, creating openings for the offensive apex predators on David Carle’s team?

I don’t think slowing down Denver on offense wins North Dakota the game(s), but if they can get in their way, this makes their job a little easier — which will be important, as they’ll be road underdogs.

The last time these two played, Minnesota won both games with an aggregate score of 8-0. That’s a snowman next to an egg, in case you couldn’t tell.

I’ve spent so much time this year hyping up the Gophers for their transition offense, and it's for good reason. They attack the net and they attack it damn hard.

Even on plays where their opponent catches up with them, even on plays where the initial shot is stopped, and even on plays where they might not have numbers… the Gopher Top 6 forward group can make something happen.

As you can pretty clearly see in this video, the Wolverines get caught in a bad pinch at the blue line, and it’s over after that. 4 players get caught in the same half of the o-zone… and then poor Ethan Edwards gets turned around as the puck quickly changes direction at his net.

This type of disarray was a common theme on Gopher goals, so how does Brandon Naurato adjust his team’s strategy in a rematch?

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Wolverines still run a 2-deep (2-3 or 2-1-2) forecheck, but with less of an emphasis on pinching, but I would consider taking a look at a system like a 1-2-2 that takes a little less risk but also doesn’t cede the middle of the o-zone to Minnesota.

Giving the space between the face-off dots in your opponent’s end against a highly skilled and fast team like Minnesota gives a lot of space for plays to develop early, but the 1-2-2 is a good counter.

Check out this diagram from Jack Han’s book, Hockey Tactics 2024:

The F1 and F3 funnel traffic to the half wall, where D2 can make a cut-off with much more support than a mano-a-mano pinch situation like a 2-3 may create.

The Wolverines getting a win here could be huge because, with about a month left to go, they’re dangerously close to the pairwise cut line (currently 13, possibly higher).

This isn’t their last chance to get one before the playoffs as they visit OSU later this month, but it’s better to be ahead than behind (duh).

Some lore: this rivalry series doesn’t carry a trophy or a star, and depending on who you ask, West Point fans will point to the Royal Military College of Canada as their biggest rival, and Colorado College likewise for Air Force fans.

But in a year where these two teams are neck-in-neck for Atlantic Hockey home-ice, and Army swept the series at West Point earlier in the season, I would expect tons of passion and competition.

Home ice is particularly important in Atlantic Hockey, given the conference’s geographic spread, but also the format. Every round is on-campus, and the 2nd and 3rd round is a Best-of-3. It’s a lot easier to win 2 games in your building when you’re sleeping in your bed than to win them on the road, sleeping in a hotel.

On the ice: both teams have one or more very strong defensemen, by raw output and advanced metrics. This will be a low-scoring, hard-fought series, and I look forward to seeing who comes out on top.

BU’s season was never in the toilet. I want to make this abundantly clear. Teams with this much talent don’t just crash out, and a healthy Hockey East pairwise bump kept them in contention for a #2 seed in March.

But now with Mikhail Yegorov in net, they’re in contention for a title again. This is the power of not just pretty good — but truly great goaltending.

The Terriers came out weak in the Beanpot final on Monday, but after one of the biggest defensive breakdowns I’ve seen in a long time (see above), Yegorov buckled down and his teammates followed suit.

The 2nd and 3rd periods were a 500-level course on How To Win A Big Game.

Jay Pandolfo’s team played with unbelievable focus and structure, setting up a 1-2-2 in the neutral zone that gave BC the perimeter, but kept their nuclear warheads from the middle of the ice where they could burn the Terriers in transition.

To an outside observer, the safety Yegorov affords BU has allowed them to trust each other and know that small mistakes won’t compound as much as they would with any of their respectable, but less consistent goaltenders in net.

My eyes are on how they can carry this momentum against a Providence team that is good, but not quite in the same tier as BC, MSU, Minnesota, and WMU.

Can BU prove their win over BC wasn’t a fluke and separate themselves from the rest of the #2 seed contenders?

Or does the same inconsistency that plagued them in the first half come back now that they’re coming down from an emotional high at TD Garden?

Mid-season returns had this earmarked as one of the most exciting weekends on the Hockey East schedule. Then the Wildcats came out of the break ice cold, going 4-8.

The offense has gone ice cold, underperforming their xG output in 6 of their 11 games since New Year’s Day, and star Ryan Conmy has also had poor luck, earning just 7 points in this same stretch.

Hockey East is not a place where you can sneak away with wins if you’re snakebitten like this (which is why they’ve picked up the QMJHL’s leading scorer for next year).

I’m really hoping that UNH can find their early-season form this weekend… because if they do and these teams match up more closely to how they did in Durham last November, we’re in for an awesome series.

Maine plays a heavy 2-3 forecheck, and UNH does as well. Maine has an experienced defensive group, and UNH does as well. There are gaps between these two teams, but they play very similar styles of hockey, built for fast-paced, tight games.

Maine’s advantage over UNH comes from their depth, scoring ability, and goaltending. They are much more consistent from game to game, and while they don’t have a true star (or 3) like you’ll see at other Top 4 programs, their offense-by-committee approach has been just fine for them.

If you haven’t heard this feel-good story: check out Harrison Scott’s career arc.

He came in from Bentley where he averaged about a half-point per game. In his senior year for the Black Bears, he is their 1C and currently a Hobey Baker contender.

The portal isn’t perfect, but he was able to jumpstart his development in his new situation, and a school that doesn’t always get 5-star recruits was able to add a player who lets them compete with the schools that do.