How does SPAM think the NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament will go?

There will be meaningful hockey played in the middle of the day today. Very exciting for those of us who have the luxury of “wasting” time!

I will not lie… I have watched far less NCAA hockey this year than last, so my insights into teams’ play styles or potential game-breaking players down the lineup are limited; however, my model SPAM has always known more about hockey than I do anyway, so another machine has taken someone’s job.

So without further ado… here is how SPAM sees the 2026 NCAA Division I Men’s Hockey Tournament shaking out.

The model has Michigan State as a heavy favorite, so I’ll give you something to like and something to hate about them to balance your expectations before today's games start.

Thing to love: Michigan State is much better at hockey than the other teams here. This isn’t a slight to Dartmouth, Wisconsin, or UConn, but Adam Nightingale has a roster at his disposal with depth players who would be stars at other NCAA programs.

There’s also serious continuity from their last 2 teams, which surely will want redemption after tough losses to rival Michigan and bid-thief Cornell in 2024 and 2025, respectively, so fans of redemption stories can get behind a team that has experienced serious disappointment over the last two years. They’ll also be healthy, coming in on two weeks’ rest.

Thing you should hate: since winning the Iron D Trophy against nemesis #1 Michigan, the Michigan State Spartans have been out of action for 2 of the 5 weekends and are 2-2-2 in 6 games, none of which were against NCAA Tournament teams. They also choked in the Round of 16 last year, and didn’t make it out of their regional the year prior either. They are also coming in on two weeks’ rest, which could lead to some rust against teams that were fighting for titles last week.

The Spartans’ first opponent is the UConn Huskies, who snuck into the tournament on semi-final night with a win against Boston College that made the number machine go brrr beep boop and sealed their fate as long as there wasn’t an absurd run of bid theft on Saturday.

UConn is similar to some of their other at-large Hockey East peer, Providence, in that their team has gotten where they are through excellent depth, systems, and experience as opposed to top Hockey East seeds of years past, such as BC or BU, who relied on elite future-NHL talent.

This could prove to be a difficult tactical match-up for a Spartans team that is built much more closely to a team like last year’s Boston College squad than one that’s ready to dig into the trenches like UConn; however, the model and a quick look at each team’s roster would suggest the Spartans should be fine.

On the other side, Dartmouth will play Wisconsin. This is maybe not the game today that jumps out at you on your first look at the schedule, but after a deeper dive, I am so invested.

These two teams have opposite resumes, with the Big Green winning the title in the marginally weaker ECAC but coming in on an 8-game undefeated streak, and the Badgers having an extremely poor run since the calendar flipped to 2026, but in a Big 10 league that sent over half its members to the tournament.

Wisconsin would likely’ve found itself on the wrong side of the bubble if not for a strong non-conference run by the Big 10 that boosted their NPI, so it’s hard to write off the clear faults they’ve shown since the new year, just as hard competition. They gave up 3.375 Goals Per Game against tournament qualifiers in 8 games since January 1st, and likely starter Daniel Hauser’s Save Percentage sits at .898, which will make Badger fans’ stomachs turn every time the Big Green enter on a rush.

TL;DR: expect the Spartans to punch their ticket to Las Vegas, but they’ll need to take down two worthy foes from the east or a very hot-cold Wisconsin team.

In what is seemingly the most wide-open region based solely on the numbers, North Dakota is playing in front of what will surely be a supportive crowd against 3 challengers from the east.

The model seems to be taking a big risk here… picking Rand Pecknold’s Quinnipiac Bobcats to come out victorious, though, in what would likely require not one, but two upsets. I’m not sure I buy this, especially considering the unknown element surrounding their goaltending situation.

Matej Marinov played more games this year, but Dylan Silverstein started both of their most recent ECAC playoff games, although both are coming into the tournament on multiple weeks’ rest and off poor performances. My model selects the goalie with the best season-long numbers if a team runs a tandem, and Silverstein is the one I simulated with.

North Dakota is the top seed, having seen an impressive turnaround this season under first-year head coach and alum Dane Jackson. One element that I think benefits their competition, however, is their poor record against other tournament teams. They are just 4-5 against teams from the NCHC that also qualified for the field, and most recently were drubbed by Minnesota - Duluth at home en route to a disappointing NCHC semi-finals defeat.

Two Hockey East teams also appear, with one much hotter than the other. Merrimack is surging, riding into the tournament on a 7-game undefeated streak and its first-ever Hockey East title. The Providence Friars certainly aren’t coming in cold, but after a dominant run to start the new year, they’ve been 5-3 over their last 8 without their senior goalie Philip Svedeback, who was injured against Alaska on January 3rd.

They were still Hockey East’s best team this year, playing a quite well-rounded game, but like seemingly every year, their strength is their depth, and the upper-tier talent leaves something to be desired when you look at their lineup next to other tournament teams.

TL;DR: the model says Quinnipiac will punch their ticket… I was originally skeptical, but now, after reading this, I might agree.

In a weird twist, the two most recent national champions and NCHC powerhouses will each square off against a team from a smaller conference that wins games through defensive structure, strong goaltending, and embracing the spirit of the long-gone dead puck era (the last bit is dramatic, but it’s a better story).

Cornell and Minnesota State are each in the Top 3 in the nation in Goals Against per game, and their hardware-flashing foes are each in the Top 10 for Goals For, while also having extremely solid defense and goaltending themselves, such as Pioneers’ Hobey finalist defenseman Eric Pohlkamp or elite Broncos’ goaltender Hampton Slukynsky.

Both Cornell and Minnesota State are frisky upset candidates, with the Big Red having done it against the Michigan State Spartans and the Mavericks having come so, so, so close against Western Michigan last year, so the favorites will need to come into the tournament with their house in order or risk a disappointing early exit.

Should things go chalk and we get a rematch of last year’s Frozen Four Semi-Final, this year’s NCHC title game, last year’s NCHC title game (okay, you get it by now), Denver vs Western Michigan will be a can’t-miss game between teams that have been on a collision course for the last two seasons.

The Pioneers have a slightly more defensive identity than in the previous two seasons, where they led the nation in scoring each year and had a defensive group led by the dynamic Zeev Buium, but the winning DNA has not gone away.

They’re still an impressive 5th in national scoring, and behind their defense, anchored by Eric Pohlkamp and Boston Buckberger, they’ve found goaltender Johnny Hicks, who has gone undefeated in 17 starts. This includes decisions 4 wins against Minnesota-Duluth and Western Michigan, plus an impressive 15 saves on 16 shots in relief against #2 North Dakota.

Perhaps Hicks is going to end up another name on the list of hot goalies who don’t end up winning the last game of the season, a la 2015 Andrew Hammond or 2000 Brian Boucher… but is it not more fun to believe?

Well, if Denver hadn’t won 22% of the NCAA hockey titles since I was born, maybe, but given their well-earned villain status in the NCAA, I am hoping that Alex Tracy outduels the hotshot freshman and restores balance to the force.

TL;DR: Denver and Western Michigan are the favorites, but they should tread lightly against teams built to beat teams that are better than them.

It’s no surprise, but the model sees buzzsaw Michigan doing buzzsaw things, and walking through this regional and stepping into Las Vegas.

Despite a slight seeding advantage to Minnesota - Duluth, the Wolverines’ most likely finals opponent is an in-conference rival, the Penn State Nittany Lions, who are looking to prove that last season was no fluke.

I would not write off the Bentley Falcons ahead of this weekend, though. Friends of the blog have been hyping up their defensive ability to me all season, and the numbers tell the same story.

The Falcons are led by former UMass - Lowell assistant Andy Jones, and the same defensive DNA that he installed with the Riverhawks is oozing out of the way Bentley plays. Plus, the Falcons almost knocked off the top-seeded BC Eagles last year in Manchester. Perhaps some foreshadowing?

Upset dart throwing aside, I’m excited for this regionals’ raw star power. 3 Hobey Baker finalists are descending into New York’s capital: T.J. Hughes (Michigan), Max Plante (Minnesota - Duluth), and Gavin McKenna (Penn State).

While they’re each in a different stage of their career, the storylines are quite fun for all of them. Hughes could finally see Michigan through to a championship after coming short in past years as a Wolverine, McKenna can make a big statement in his final competition before the draft, and Max Plante’s potential Hobey-winning season could get a Heisman-moment boost from a great performance on the national broadcast.

TL;DR: the model says Michigan wins, but I wouldn’t write anyone here off.

Should the model’s picks prove true, it’ll feel like 2024 again, with two close-proximity rivals loaded with blue-chip talent qualifying, but on opposite sides of the bracket.

While I would be slightly disappointed if Denver came out of their region, their game against the Wolverines on Thursday night of Frozen Four weekend would be the kind of blue-blood clash that I hope would generate a lot of buzz for the tournament inside and outside of the hockey community.

It would be hard to pick against any of these teams except for maybe Quinnipiac if the bracket fell like this, and that’s only because the other 3 are so strong. But should the Bobcats make it this far, they’ve certainly proven their #winningDNA over the last few years and have a coach who has led them to victories over more traditional powers at the Frozen Four before… so bet against them at your own peril.

I personally really hope that we can see the Michigan-Michigan State national title game. Being at so many games and around each campus during the 2023-24 season, where it at least felt like BC and BU were locks to match up at the final, the tension was really great, and I can only imagine our friends in The Mitten State are enjoying a similar experience.

Thank you for reading. I hope this helps you enjoy the tournament games today. I’m sure for some of you who follow the NCAA very closely, there isn’t very much new information in here, but I hope the odds are at least interesting.

Have a great weekend!