Brent crude jumps over US$100 as the Iran conflict blocks both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. The European Central Bank holds, but hawkishly. And Australian jobs jump, albeit with a flat jobless rate — keeping the pressure to hike off the RBA.
In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at how well-placed Asian economies are to handle the return of higher oil prices.
5 things to know in 5 minutes:
Brent crude prices jumped to nearly US$102 a barrel overnight as the Iran conflict widened to include blockages of oil tankers through both the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf, and the Bab el Mandeb Strait from the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the ECB held rates as expected, albeit with ECB President Christine Lagarde keeping a hawkish bias and leaving the market expecting another hike in September, says ANZ Economist Henry Russell.
Australian employment jumped 76,000 in June 5, which was five times the market expectation. However, the unemployment rate remained at 4.4% as participation also increased. ANZ Economist Aaron Luk says conditions remain tight, but are loosening.
Aaron says the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably take the steady unemployment rate into account more than the jump in employment, some of which might be noise.
South Korea’s growth moderated to 0.6% in the second quarter off the back of a large 1.8% increase in Q1. ANZ Economist Krystal Tan says even the lower growth beat expectations as AI-linked strength continued.
Singapore’s June CPI inflation came in lower than market expectations, although the closely-watched core measure of annual inflation rose from 1.4% to 1.6%. ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh says the Monetary Authority of Singapore still looks set to tighten policy further on Monday.
Cheers,
Bernard.
PS: Catch you next week as we look to Australian inflation and rate decisions in the US, Japan, Singapore and the UK.
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