Weekly OFR (Option Flow Report)

The OFR — Option Flow Report

By Chris Capre, Head of BOS / TW / 2ST

(Do not forward)

Welcome to a new trading week!

The Week in Review

SPY:

SPY ended its two week bullish closes by printing a red weekly candle last week, albeit a decent one, opening the cash session around 776 and closing the week around 766. Two choppy days bookended by declines on Mon/Tues/Thurs as bond yields kept pushing higher, despite a treasury intervention. We think bond yields/rates will continue to be the story going forward.

QQQ:

QQQ’s has a stronger bearish decline relative to SPY last week with aggressive selling on Mon/Tues while choppy days held less gains. The AI trade has not found a general bid, only localized bids, thus tech should remain volatile and vulnerable.

• We begin this week with a laundry list of economic/macro events such as PCE on Weds, NVDA earnings aftermarket on Weds, and the Jackson Hole speech on Fri. All 3 events should adjust forward guidance on rates/yields and AI. This is all happening post Aug op-ex.

• While we’re getting little updates about the Iran/US conflict, USO continues to rise gaining $7 last week. We’ve had no weekly closes north of 150, but oil looks like its building for higher prices and may attempt to close > 136, which was the Jul 20 weekly high. Closes > this put has back to May prices when the war/conflict was hottest before a series of talks/MoU’s.