Championship 1-24 predictions

That time of the year again, when the predictions are in full flow. Everyone has a strong opinion - every fan thinks they’ll either get relegated or get into the play-offs. To save you time, feel free to DM me or reply to this when I tweet it out. My personality is that of destruction and/or can be dogmatic - I’m working on it, honest.

Anyway, enough of the fucking about, let’s get right into it.

24th. Lincoln City.

Great achievement last season, getting 103 points. But… BUT, the Championship is a massive step up. The squad is looking thin and lacking quality in almost all areas, bar maybe the centre-forward position. To me, the squad should be built around a back three. It’s the best way to make up for quality and the most tactically flexible if you have multiple players who can play either centre-back or wing-back. For example, would it not be most logical to have Bradley as the middle centre-back, Coubis on the right, and someone like Elder on the left, with Honohan as the left wing-back, and you could easily play Hackett-Fairchild as the right wing-back, and have your two best 9s in the Diplodocus joining from Sweden, with Rob Street playing together. Rotate them with House and Melia too. The elephant in the room is Skubala going to Bristol City - and whilst there’s a touch of Thomas Frank going to Spurs and in-house coach Keith Andrews taking over feel to it, that Brentford squad was still in the same division; this is a step up in quality. Losing Jack Moylan is also a huge blow. Someone will have to fill the void of his 17 goal contributions last season. Will need to have a big final three or so weeks of the window.

23rd. Charlton Athletic.

The vibes around the place seem a bit off with the news of a potential sale, though not as chaotic as first feared. They stayed up last season with more Jones magic, and I think he wants to play a 4-2-3-1 and will start with that. Lloyd Jones is great; Karlan Grant is a nice pickup and return. I like Sonny Carey and Harvey Knibbs as players who will get you goals. Charlton, as ever, have some talented attackers in their squad like Micah Mbick, Daniel Kanu and Miles Leaburn, but it’s all a bit meh. I’m looking at Kaminski and thinking, what on earth are you still doing at this level? It was a crap signing to begin with, and he now looks like he has an obsession with wormholes - he’ll get down and struggle to get back up. Need to upgrade him or at least start Mannion. I also look at the midfield and struggle to see any ball progression or control. I see a lot of endeavour, and there’s going to be a lot of reliance on Karlan Grant, because I don’t think any of the strikers will get into double figures. I don’t think their keeper is good enough to win them points unless Lloyd Jones levels up again and heads everything away. This is a team that will eventually revert to a back five and look to grind out wins.

22nd. Bolton Wanderers.

I don’t think their first eleven is that poor for the level. It’s quite solid defensively and in midfield, but I think my both boxes rule comes into play here when the talent advantage is at the bottom in comparison to the rest of the league. I don’t trust their keepers to be good enough for the level, and I don’t trust their attacking players currently to score enough goals. They reek of a side that scores about 40 but concedes around 60. I’m also not entirely convinced by Schumacher at this level either. His teams have a knack for shooting a lot but not actually creating enough clear-cut chances. If they want a chance of staying up, to me they’d have to bring in a starting keeper, an entire new front three, and a number 10 if they’re going to stick with the 4-2-3-1 system. Watson is a nice pick-up, though; I’ll be interested to see if he can handle the step up, as he’s been a player who’s been highly rated throughout his time in Scotland. I’ve been quite surprised with the lack of business done so far given the clear deficiencies in the squad.

21st. Preston

A bit like Charlton, the vibes at Preston seem off. The captain of the club, Ben Whiteman effectively walking out of the club to join Wrexham. I think they’ll stay up simply because they’re the Everton of the Championship. They have too many players who know how to get the job done at Championship level. They’ve also got one of the best keepers and midfielders in the league too. There’s just zero depth and perhaps not enough money to plug some of those gaps. I would say if they replace Whiteman with BDK from Oxford, then they’ve got an upgrade there. It’s all like.. boring init?

20th. Stoke City.

Should not be 20th. But they’re forever hovering around here, and every time I think they’ve got a good squad, they stink the place out. Cannot be arsed going in depth with them because it’s rinse and repeat the last few seasons. We all know Steve Cooper is taking over at some point, so get on with that.

19th. Blackburn Rovers.

I think a lot of people will have Rovers going down, and although I do have them close to the drop, I really can’t see it. I know the last few jobs for Mowbray haven’t been smooth sailing, but I do think there are mitigating circumstances, mostly health issues. But if you genuinely look at the Rovers squad, there are some very good players here. Morishita, to me, could easily play at a top-half side, same with Cantwell and Alebiosu. You’ve got a great young prospect in Tom Atcheson, surrounded by leadership to nurture him in Wharton, Carter and McLoughlin. They have solid enough pros in the squad. But the main reason I think they should be fine is the forward line. They’re not the most flashy, but they will get goals. Ohashi is good for 8/9, Jorgensen the same, and I’m putting my stocks in Andri Gudjohnsen this season too - would not shock me at all if he gets the Mogga Magic and scores 12+ goals this season for a bottom-half team.

18th. Cardiff.

This might be a surprise to some? I’m not really sure how their fans are feeling this summer. But I’m looking at their squad and thinking there’s nice players here n there but I’m not sure quality wise they’re on a level where they can finish higher than say 12th. I like them in both boxes with Trott and Salech - I think they’ll do enough to keep them away from danger or anything like that. Just a comfortable season for Cardiff without ever worrying about going down. Let’s not forget the point differential last season between 18th and 13th was 5 points. So I’m not saying Cardiff are bad by any means. Just think it’ll be a really comfortable season for them. I also think their style of play might be an issue with the step up in quality. But BBM is good enough where he can adapt if needed I suspect.

17th. Portsmouth.

I think Pompey are another team that a few will have going down, but I can’t see it. Their underlying numbers last season, from Jan onwards, had them roughly a playoff-level side. Of course you have to dig deeper and see why they weren’t picking up the points they were supposed to. First one being defending from set pieces. I don’t have a clue what was going on with them, but the game against Derby summed it up for me - absolutely everyone all at sea; if an old fan was around in the Titanic days they’d have got PTSD. Another one is Colby Bishop missing sitter after sitter after sitter. Granted, they’ve addressed that with the signing of Marko Milovanović, who’s a big fucker up top who scores goals with his head and can cause centre-backs chaos to leave Segecic to pick up the scraps. He fits their chance creation ideas. But the injuries they get every season on top of what I mentioned regarding set piece defending, I have to have them around here, but I could see them finishing higher.

16th. Wrexham.

Yeah, I said it. This is purely from a managerial pov. The entire season, my model has them around 17th best team performance-wise last season. Squad-wise, they should be nowhere near here, but I don’t trust Phil Parkinson to have his team overperform for a second season running in the Championship. What he’s done for that football club is nothing short of legendary but gut feeling here is they have a poor season. There’s always one shock per year and this is the one shock. The signing of Danny Imray is a great one - as I said, player for player they’re play-off level. But good players don’t cover a bad setup; only top ones do for an entire season, and even then it crumbles at some point. I could be so so wrong here, but they faced 1.4 xGOT from January onwards last season, which only four teams faced higher quality shots. Granted, the football da’s won’t like this but let’s aaaave it. My worry here is they sack Parkinson and then go for someone like Mousinho, and they obviously don’t finish this low.

15th. Watford.

We’ll be top 8 up until January, then fall away completely and finish 15th. We have too many good players to go down, albeit light in some areas. I don’t trust us in both boxes, but everywhere else I think we’re sound. Louza and Irankunda are leaving, and they of course need to be replaced, and we’ll pull out one player from our arse. But the vibes, happiness and intent from what I’ve seen in pre-season says to me we’ll be more than fine this season. Expect Maamma, Bravo, Bove and Vata to have big seasons this year. The chaotic owner in Gino might fuck us, but I think we have enough where it’s going to be a boring season. Honestly, I’d Gary Barlow that if it means we keep Dionisi for an entire season. Although if we bring back Mfuni, Alleyne and bring in at least a ball-playing midfielder and competent striker. Bollocks to you all, top 8 babyyyyyyy.

14th West Brom.

I truly don’t know. They’re the one team I can’t get my finger on. Some very good players in the squad. James Morrison, who came in and had them playing as a playoff-level side via underlying numbers and results. But I get the Tom Cleverley syndrome here. Come in when things are bad, but are they really? And lifts players’ spirits; the numbers look good and then once the following season comes around, being the man from the start is a much different kind of pressure. I can’t offer much else to say because yeah, I don’t have a scooby

13th. Birmingham City.

Fourth best home record, fourth worst away record last season, ending the season 10th, so 13th would be a poor season for the fans and the owners, I assume. Reason being for me is that, although I like Chris Davies, I just don’t trust him to get it right enough. I also don’t trust their keeper or much of their forward line to stick the ball in the back of the net enough. Even though I can see Priske showing what he’s capable of, the away showings last season put me off too much. Davies, for me, rightly or wrongly, is in first manager-sacked territory. Also too many players in the side where I think do they have enough? the likes of Laird, Cocherane, Vicente, Roberts, Stansfield, Fujimoto. They’re good but are they good?

12th. Swansea City.

I have a working theory that managers influenced by Red Bull concepts will start the season fast and then fade in the latter stages due to not having enough depth to keep up the intensity. I think the signing of Eli Just is one of the best in terms of fit for the team and ability in general. I like the signing of Opoku too, as he’s pure output in what he does - albeit he might need a season to adapt. The reason I have them 12th and not higher is depth and having Burgess or Welsh start at centre-back. If they can add a better quality player there and bring in another high-level central midfielder, I can see them being higher. My model last season, when Matos joined, had them as the 11th best team in the league. I think that’s about right for now.

11th. Bristol City.

Really like their business so far. Ballard and Tolaj are, on paper, a good partnership - really like their midfield depth too—creativity, set-piece threat, intensity in the spine of the team. Where I think they’re capped is in the full back department and wide areas. I’d like to see more goal-scoring threat if they can bring that in and two first-choice full backs - because I trust the keeper to save shots and I trust the strikers to score goals. It’s how much can they prevent the chances being conceded from the flanks with little depth there currently - plenty of time to address this of course. I’m also interested to see if Skubala uses Ballard and Tolaj together, because he has to, right?

10th. QPR.

I think some might be surprised with me having them this high. The big difference for me is they’ve now got two keepers who have functioning hands. I also think their talent levels in the squad are higher than people maybe think, albeit it does kind of need lightning to strike more than once. Kone has had his first season bedding in and I now expect him to kick on and take that extra step that I believe he can. Burrell is a born goal scorer so he’ll no doubt contribute. Chair is creative, Saito and Poku are 1v1 players who make shit happen even if the end product might be annoying. I also think there’s a chance Harvey Vale has a breakout season too. Then you’ve got the reliable guys in the middle in Madsen, Varane and Kamara in front of Dunne and Edwards. I think this is a team that’s smartly put together with a head coach that knows how to navigate young talent.

9th. Derby County.

Could easily make the play-offs, but I have them slightly missing out due to the absence of Agyemang and their midfield being a bit meh, and I include the signing of Ozoh in that. I’m not saying Fraulo, Travis and Ozoh are bad players by any means; I think all three are very good complementary midfielders next to someone like a Morris, Louza, Grimes, Neghli. Also think they could potentially do with another right back, as I personally don’t think Max Johnston is an upgrade on Joe Ward, and what the latter can offer you is, at least on occasion, great crossing delivery. I think the level is up from last year and goals only coming from potentially Morris and Clark - that I can hang my hat on- is something which I think will mean they fall just short.

8th. Sheffield United.

I know there’s a lot of doom and gloom around Blades - I’ve even seen some say could they go down. Perhaps I’m not close enough to the situation but I’m looking at their team now, and their first XI is still really good. I know Cooper had a down year last season, but that was the first of his career. I expect him to be back to his best this season and establish himself again as arguably the best keeper in the league. They’ve also got two strikers in Bamford and Campbell, while the latter can be frustrating - know how to put the ball in the back of the net. O’Hare is very good at what he does - and then Peck and Arblaster are a nice pairing should the latter be able to rediscover his form. The expectation is that Hamer will leave, and he will be a significant loss and needs to be replaced. Tanganga is also a top player for the league, along with Siriki having something about him should he stay. They undoubtedly need more depth, but this is still a good side.

7th. Millwall.

Millwall are a smart club and will sustain playoff pushes as long as they continue to do what they do. The mad thing is, I’m still not entirely sold on their team. So this, outside of West Brom and Wrexham, was one I wasn’t sure of. My both boxes rule with Millwall doesn’t pass the test. I think Crocombe is pretty meh and I’m not sold on any of their 9s despite some good goal records last season. Do I really trust Coburn to be a proper bagsman? Absolutely not. I do trust their ability to prevent shots, though, and their midfield three and back four are up there with anyone’s in this league when it comes to endeavour, ability and synergy. I do fully expect Neghli to establish himself as one of the best midfielders in the league this season. The main reason I have these 7th is that the thing I can’t quantify is they just know how to win and get it done.

6th. Norwich City.

Going back to my model - in terms of just performance-related numbers not including the scoreline, Norwich ranked 6th when Clement took over last season. Without a pre-season, without a window to bring in players he likes. Their number 9 options in terms of talent are a joke. Makama, Toure, and Kvistgaarden would all start for most teams in the league outside the parachute payment sides. Granted, the latter hasn’t shown what he’s capable of in a Norwich shirt; the boy has bags of ability. I’m not particularly sold on their defence and keeper - Kovacevic, while he is capable of great saves, also has it in him to do something mad like rabona it in his own net or something. I think McConville, from what I’ve seen, Is much better than Darling but doesn’t seem to be ahead of him in the XI yet. Fisher is good; I think they perhaps need another left back despite the signing of Yongwa. McLean and Mattsson are top for the level, has everything you want. Will need another winger now that Ahmed is out for the season, but I trust Clement to have these inside the playoffs.

5th. Burnley.

Out of the relegated teams, Burnley feels like the most unsettled. I don’t really want to spend too much time on the three that came down because it’s boooooring. But they can potentially field a front four of Edwards, Amdouni, Tresor and Flemming, which is insane - especially if a miracle happens and they manage to get Tresor back to his Genk best. Perhaps hiring someone who’s got a history of developing Belgian talent will do that.

4th. Middlesbrough.

Hellberg for me is the best coach in the league. Their issue last season was having the worst keeper in the league, and now they’ve brought in one of the best in Vitek. They also went long spells of breaking down the classic ‘low block’ but couldn’t put the ball in the back of the net. Rather than me giving my thoughts on why I’m a bit confused by some of their signings, I’ll instead try, from my pov, to explain their thought process. Hellberg is a coach who wants full intensity in the attacking line - that’s what you can’t fault Kyle Joseph for. The latter is also a chance magnet in the box too, and is a similar profile to Antonsson, who scored 20 for him in Sweden. Hellberg is also all about, in terms of possession, keeping players close and moving it quickly. The signing of Berhalter to replace Hackney makes sense for that in the middle due to A) his synergy with Morris already and his ability to play one touch. Arsten is the most intriguing player because he’s outright not a left back - his defensive ability is borderline nonexistent. However, when he played off the right for Columbus, he drifted into central positions to receive the ball and has the speed and 1v1 ability to stretch teams with his movement too. He’s also naturally athletic and intense in his game. Yeah, Vitek and Phillips can’t pass as well as a Hellberg team might want to, but they can prevent goals and play simple passes. If they can get a more intense winger on that right side to replace Whittaker, you’ll see a relentless Boro side. Then of course you have Will Lankshear, who’s now adapted to life in the Championship and someone who should put the ball in the back of the net frequently.

3rd. Southampton.

#StopKony2012 #BanTonda2026

2nd. Wolves.

Wolves fans will be looking at their squad thinking it’s shite. The rest of us are like the Office meme where the woman walks into the pub, and Brent turns around and says oh for fuck sake. How are these here with that quality. Fucking Andre and Jimenez in the second tier, alright man.

1st. West Ham.

These fuckers could genuinely run a front four of Bowen, Castellanos, Adingra and Parrott. I don’t know why they want to spend £20m or so on Engels mind you; he’s not even a standout player for Celtic. Should win the league quite comfortably zzzzzzz.

For a bit of fun - top goal scorer: Yousef Salech.

Main man for a Cardiff side who should be fine this season, is a chance magnet. The one they look for, on penalties (I think) a set piece threat. Think he’s around 50/1 and 66/1 on some betting sites too.